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2004 Electoral College

This site is about predicting the electoral college results for the 2004 presidential election.

For latest Prediction, click here or just scroll down.

On this page you will find the current Electoral College 2004 Prediction with links to electoral college maps, predictive, outside-the-box analysis (laced with wit and wisdom), and electoral results from past presidential elections.

Election 2000 did more toward educating Americans on the electoral college than all the teachers, professors and pundits in the last half century -- all of them put together.

Voters who are overconfident (i.e. did not learn the lessons of Election 2000) about their candidate's prospects may find this site a bit sobering, unsettling, depressing .. even shocking .. or just plain awful.

Deaniacs and voters with tinfoil hats (pardon the redundancy) will find all the conspiracies they could ever hope to find (Pssst .. for those not in the know, it's in the pixels .. that's where the secret messages are hidden).

The Players

The players in the electoral college are the candidates, the electors and the voters. If you don't vote, you can't play.

The 2 main candidates this year are President George W. Bush and Senator Jean Francois Kerry. Ralph Nader is making a somewhat lame attempt. There are various other candidates representing various other parties whose relevance is matched only by their obscurity.

So the focus is on W and Jean Francois .. and Nader to the extent that his candidacy has the potential to impact places where wackos congregate such as Oregon.

Lighten up Oregonians! Love those Ducks. Quack! Quack!

The Electoral College 2004 Prediction

The Electoral College 2004 Prediction is subject to change right up to election day.

Factors bearing on the Electoral College 2004 Prediction include the economy, war, terrorism, scandal .. and sadly, Democrat voter fraud.

The post-9/11 world is a volatile place, to be sure. The only thing predictable about al Qaeda, Egyptian Islamic Jihad, Kim Jong Il and their ilk is that they are unpredictable.

Prior to that terrible September day in 2001, we didn't know what we didn't know. We now know a good deal about what we don't know and as we race to find the answers, time is not on our side.

So with that caveat, as of November 1, 2004, the Electoral College 2004 Prediction is: M's 2004 Electoral College Predicition










The Republican base is fired up and will turn out in record numbers. Hispanics are breaking for President Bush in a bigger way than 2000. There is much anecdotal evidence that points to a large number of post 9-11 Democrats who will vote for President Bush.

W wins all 2000 states, except New Hampshire.

W picks up these (previously) Blue States: Hawaii, Iowa, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.


W won Florida and New Hampshire by slim margins in 2000

Florida: W = 2,912,790 (48.85%), Gore = 2,912,253 (48.84%) .01%
New Hampshire: W = 278,559 (48.6%), Gore = 266,848 (46.2%) 2.4%

W lost Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon and Wisconsin by slim margins

Iowa: W = 634,373 (48.3%), Gore = 638,517 (48.6%) .3%
Minnesota: W = 1,109,659 (45.5%), Gore = 1,168,266 (47.9%) 2.4%
New Mexico: W = 286,417 (47.8%), Gore = 286,783 (47.9%) .1%
Oregon: W = 713,577 (46.6%), Gore = 720,342 (47.1%) .5%
Wisconsin: W = 1,237,279 (47.6%) , Gore = 1,242,987 (47.8%) .2%

W lost New Jersey big and Pennsylvania by a much smaller margin

New Jersey: W = 1,284,173 (40.3%), Gore = 1,788,850 (56.1%) 15.8%
Pennsylvania: W = 2,281,127 (46.4%), Gore = 2,485,967 (50.6%) 4.2%

©2005. Merry Mad Monk