2004 Electoral College - State By State Analysis
Click on any State for 2004 Analysis (or just scroll down)
The only way John Kerry could win Alabama is if his opponent were Coach Phil Fulmer of Tennessee. Unfortunately for Kerry, Fulmer is not running for president. President Bush is and he will win Alabama with at least 65% of the vote.
Igloos will melt before Alaskans vote for a Democrat. Alaskans know more about the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) than all the liberal Democrats, media pundits, and wacky environmentalists combined.
ANWR holds up to 16 billion (yes, that's a "B") barrels of oil, the equivalent of 30 years of Saudi Arabian imports. And as for drilling in ANWR, we're talking a footprint of about 3 square miles in an area the size of South Carolina.
And here's what U.S. Senator Zell Miller has to say:
(Miller, a former governor of Georgia, is the author of A National Party No More: The Conscience of a Conservative Democrat)
"If you wanted to take your family to see this [ANWR], to see if it lived up to what you have heard, the cost to your family for the trip would be enormous. First, you'd have to drive or fly commercially to Fairbanks, Alaska. From there, you have to charter a small single engine plane to Arctic Village, a tiny Eskimo community. That plane would be crowded for a family of four, but you're not even there yet. At Arctic Village, you'd have to charter still another "bush" plane to fly you over the Chandalar River Pass in the vast Brooks Range, an hour and a half flight, and often, planes can't get through because of heavy fog or blizzards".
"Pristine" [the nickname he gives to ANWR in ridiculing extreme environmentalists] is only viewable a few months out of the year and the weather often gets to 50 degrees below zero. Now, I'm no travel agent, but I believe the Grand Canyon, Yellowstone, Niagara Falls, Cumberland Island, or countless other places would be more educational and certainly less expensive for a family vacation. But do you think these elitists even think how few Americans might even want to make such a trip? Or could afford it? Of course they don't; they think everyone is on a liberal expense account like they are. How arrogant. "Pristine" is thousands of miles away at a place where hard-working families could never afford to visit. These all-knowing people always understand what's best for us; they always know what we should like, what we should drive, and even in this case, what we should think is pretty. Well, I'm sorry, I've seen "Pristine" up close. I think it's not that pretty."
President Bush will win, but it will be by a lesser margin than 2000.
Arizona has a large veteran population that was mostly pro-Bush even before Kerry was proved to have lied about his Vietnam service, before the details of his anti-war activities surfaced. Not only will that increase support for President Bush among veterans, it will motivate them to vote
This particular phenomenon is true for veterans in every state. Kerry is badly damaged among veterans.
Some conservatives may sit this one out due to the President's immigration policies. Illegal immigration is a HUGE problem for the Southwest border states .. and is starting to resonate with the rest of the nation.
What are we doing about the 42,000 other-than-Mexican people (many, disturbingly, from the Middle East) who have illegally crossed our Southern border in the last 16 months?
What the hell are we doing to prevent terrorists from crossing the Mexican and Canadian borders?
Bill Clinton's vice president could not win Arkansas. Hell, algore couldn't even win his home state of Tennessee (of course, we know Tennessee was not really algore's home. The doofus grew up in a Washington, D.C. apartment).
Lurch (aka Jean Francois Kerry) won't be able to win it either. Not by a long shot.
Yippee! Arnold is governor! ... a classic case of "all politics are local".
Arnold is very popular and he seems to be getting things done, but this will not translate into increased support for President Bush.
Kerry will win big in the Democratic People's Republic of Kalifornia. (55%)
Colorado is in President Bush's column, unless Amendment 36 passes.
Amendment 36 is the Colorado Electoral College Reform Initiative (CECRI) and it is on the November ballot.
CECRI would allocate the state's 9 electoral votes proportionately to each candidate's popular vote, and it would be retroactive to the 2004 election.
This clearly favors Kerry.
Read more about CECRI here,
here and here
Leave it to all those California transplants to try to muck things up. Have you been out to Colorado lately? Hell, it's full of lefties now. I guess they heard that song, "Drinking Beer on the Coast of Colorado When California's Gone".
In 2000, 55.9% of the vote went to algore. Of course, it didn't hurt that Joe Lieberman was algore's running mate. That certainly motivated a lot of Connecticutivists to get home from their jobs in New York in time to cast their votes.
This time a neighbor is leading the Democratic ticket. Expect Kerry to win big.
It must be really hard to get excited about campaigning in places like Delaware. This otherwise insignificant piece of New England goes to Kerry.
puh-leeeeeeez .. Kerry gets 90% of the vote.
Also see Florida 2000 County Vote and Election 2000 Chronology and Election 2000 Debacle
In 2000, the TV networks called Florida for Al Gore before the polls had closed in the western panhandle which is in a different time zone (U.S. Central).
Anecdotal evidence, at the time, suggested that quite a few Panhandlers were in line at the polls when they learned that Al Gore had "won" Florida. Discouraged, they left without voting and went home. There were others who were enroute to the polls from work, heard the news on the radio, and went home instead.
The final election results from the Florida Elections Division show that voter turnout in the panhandle counties was 3% less than the state average. That translates into thousands of potential votes for Bush that were not cast.
There will NOT be a turnout problem in the Panhandle this year.
Republican turnout will be high (70+ %) in the other counties as well, President Bush will win Florida by several thousand votes.
Also see Florida 2000 County Vote and Election 2000 Chronology and Election 2000 Debacle
Jaw-Juh, home of the great Zell Miller, is Dubya country. If he wins with less than 60%, I'll be shocked.
Georgia 2002 was a disaster for the Democratic National Committee. They helped lose a Senate seat and the governorship.
The number (considerable) of registered Democrats matters not -- as long as a sizeable portion of them continue to be as well-grounded as their Senator, the previously mentioned Zell Miller. Did I already say that he was great?
Kerry will win Hawaii with 60%. Nice place to visit, but their politics suck. The biggest electoral surprise for The Monk is the closeness of the race in Hawaii.
2 polls show President Bush leading. Both are within the margin of error, but I still think Kerry will win Hawaii .. although by a much slimmer margin than I previously predicted.
On the other hand, W will win Idaho with 70% of the vote and cancel out Hawaii's 4 electoral votes.
Kerry will get 50+% of the vote.
Illinois has a population of 12.4 million.
5.3 million of them live in Cook County and they're ALL Democrats (of these, 5.7 million of them will vote .. yes, Chicago's political machine is alive and well).
Yet another example of a big city/county deciding the issue for people in about 90 other counties whether the people in those counties agree with them or not -- most do not.
Real Hoosiers vote for President Bush. He'll win with 55+% of the vote.
Are you sick of Iowa and New Hampshire? Me too. Who gives a rat's ass what they think.
Oh, alright. Iowa has been trending toward President Bush in the last week leading up to election day.
President Bush wins by a narrow margin.
President Bush gets 60% of the vote.
The bulk of Kerry's votes will come from Kansas City (that other Kansas City - the one with the inferiority complex), Topeka and Wichita.
The Democrats can't figure Kentucky out. Neither can the Republicans, but Kentucky will vote for President Bush in a big way .. 55% .. so what's to figure? Let's just leave them be.
George W. will win the Bayou State again, but not by the same margin of victory (52.6%) as in 2000.
Only New Jersey and Chicago can match the political chicanery and shenanigans of Louisiana. Afterall, it's a state still dominated by Democrats.
Yet, in past presidential elections, there have been enough Democrats who believe that the interests of the nation (such as national security) come before the interests of the state. So, they usually punch the Republican ticket. Such radicals!
This may be coming to an end.
In 2002, Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu was in the biggest fight of her political life. At stake was not simply who would represent Louisiana, but whether the Republicans could add another seat to their slim Senate majority.
While it's true that Mary Landrieu sometimes voted with the Republicans, what really mattered was enough cushion to ensure Republican control of the Senate, i.e. committee chairmanships (cushion against spineless weasels such as "Jumping Jim" Jeffords who switched from Independent to Democrat .. this after the Republicans had come to his aid in his most recent election .. but what else would ya expect out of someone who shares the same state with Howard Dean).
Having 52 Senate seats instead of 51 would give President Bush some much needed breathing room for the administration's policies and programs, not least of which are Homeland Security and the War on Terrorism.
Landrieu was faced with a strong Republican challenger, Suzanne Terrell, who had the full support of the Republican National Committee.
It was a time for Louisiana to acknowledge the post-9/11 paradigm, to rise to the occasion, to cast aside business-as-usual politics, to look beyond her own self-interests and speak to the interests of the nation.
Sadly, but not too surprisingly, it was not to be. While the race was respectably close, Senator Landrieu prevailed.
I spent a week in Bangor one afternoon.
Maine chooses two Electors by statewide popular vote and the other 2 by popular vote within each Congressional district. (It makes my hair hurt)
Any way you count it, Kerry wins.
Baltimore says it all. Kerry will get 55% of the vote.
Unlike algore, Lurch will win his home state.
Home to Ted Kennedy and Michael Dukakis .. how proud they must be.
In 2000, Gore won Michigan with 51.3% to W's 46.1%. This year, Michigan is a surprisingly close race. Most polls show it neck and neck. I don't buy it.
Kerry will win Michigan by a larger margin than Gore. Say it ain't so .. sorry, but it's so. Count me in as a buyer now, but Michigan goes to Kerry.
President Bush wins, but it will be very close.
Minnesota is not as leftist as portrayed by the media. There will be Dems following the lead of the St. Paul mayor. Also, Gov Tim Pawlenty and US Senator Norm Coleman are both solid republicans who are making a positive impact on the attitudes of voters. And we can't leave out our Power Line buddies who are probably having the greatest influence of all.
Of all things, the snowmobile issue may increase the margin of President Bush's victory. Get someone from Minnesota to explain.
By the way, what is snow?
President Bush easily wins Mississippi.
The state that was devastated by trial lawyers is not about to support a ticket with a trial lawyer.
It was open season on doctors in the Magnolia state thanks to trial lawyers. The flight of medical doctors to other states caused a medical crisis whose effects are still being felt today.
The Mississippi legislature has since enacted tort reform measures, but much of their legislative efforts fell far short of true tort reform.
Missouri is NOT a tossup state this time. Missouri is solidly behind President Bush and he'll win with between 51-55% of the vote.
Conventional wisdom among pollsters and pundits is that Missouri is a bellwether state noted for its political complexities.
However, the political landscape in Missouri is really quite simple: the state is split between St. Louis/Kansas City on the one hand and the rest of Missouri on the other.
As for being a bellwether, the two cities are definitely an indicator of trends in the Blue states and counties while the rest of Missouri is a bellwether for the Red states and counties.
Missouri citizens throughout the rest of the state have often been frustrated at the ballot box during statewide elections due to being out-voted by the two big cities. In the case of St. Louis, specifically, unethical and outright criminal activity at polling places is the standard.
But one issue galvanized and organized the non-city dwellers like no other, the Concealed Carry Weapon (CCW) law. Time and time again the two big cities ensured that ballot issues and legislative efforts failed.
Then in the Spring of 2003, both the Missouri House and Senate passed a CCW bill, which Democratic Governor Bob Holden promptly vetoed. The Missouri legislature eventually overrode Holden's veto to pass the law and just days ago, the Missouri voters showed Bob Holden the door.
In the same election primary that saw Bob Holden booted out of the Governor's Mansion, Missouri voters overwhelming approved (71% to 29%) an amendment to the state constitution that defines marriage as being between a man and a woman and bans legalization of marriage for members of the same sex.
President Bush gets 60% of the vote. NOT Kerry country.
Nebraska, like Maine, chooses it electors by a combination of popular vote within districts and at-large votes. Unlike Maine, Nebraska is Bush country. The President wins easily here.
NOT a tossup state. President Bush wins with an inside straight.
Polls show New Hampshire trending towards Kerry, but the New Hampshirites will be influenced by national polls showing the President leading. That will bring them to their senses enough that President Bush will the state again .. but by the skin of his teeth.
The race in New Jersey is very close. Some polls show President Bush leading. New Jersey Democrats have a lot more in common with President Bush than the French-looking, French-acting Kerry. New Jersey went for Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush (the first time) in a big way. Only Clinton was able to sway the majority of Dems back to voting party line.
New Jersey looks to President Bush for continued strong leadership and values that they can relate to.
President Bush barely lost New Mexico (by 366 votes) in 2000. If his re-election for Texas governor can be used as a guide, he will get more Hispanic votes than in 2000.
Governor Bill Richardson is a good soldier for the Democratic party, but he's no fool. He's one of the nation's most forward looking governors and you can bet he sees the coming train wreck for the Democratic party. Don't expect Gov. Richardson to spend a lot of political capital for John Kerry.
Kerry will win New York, but it will be a much closer race than the pundits and pollsters predict. It definitely will not be a repeat of 2000 when algore won 60.2% to Bush's 35.2%. I believe it will be more like Kerry 49%, President Bush 45%.
Home of Dem VP candidate, John Edwards, the Tarheel state is solid Bush country. It is doubtful whether Edwards could even be re-elected to the senate so terrible is his senate record and reputation.
Not even close. President Bush will win 60+% of the vote.
Economically, Ohio has been having a tough go, but national security is trumping all other issues in the Buckeye state. That means President Bush will win Ohio again.
Ohio is a good example of a Red State with a lot of post-9/11 Bush Democrats.
Close US senate race, but the same is not true for president. President Bush will win big. 60+%.
The wackos outnumber the normal people. Kerry will easily win Oregon.
Pennsylvania is a dead heat. Currently Kerry has a slight lead. I believe it is close enough, that ultimately Pennsylvania will vote for W. And we can't forget about the Tom Ridge factor. Tom Ridge is Secretary of Homeland Security. He was a very popular Pennsylvania governor.
Kerry wins big.
President Bush wins big.
President Bush wins big here, too. Close US senate race. The Republican challenger, Thune, looks like he just might thump Daschle. That would be a very good thing.
Some pundits believe Tennessee is a toss-up state. They cite Tennessee's 3 "Grand Divisions": East Tennessee, Middle Tennessee and West Tennessee.
While it's true these regions are geographically and culturally distinct even to the point that they are legally defined by Tennessee state law, Tennessee is not about to vote for a liberal, fear-monger from Massachusetts.
Time to crank up MC Hammer: oh-oh oh oh-oh-oh .. U can't touch this .. oh-oh oh oh-oh-oh .. U can't touch this
President Bush won in 2000 with 67.2% of the vote. I wouldn't be surprised if he got 75% of the vote this year.
These people are NOT to be trusted, but not just because they'll choose Kerry (which they will).
These people cannot be trusted because they elected this raving lunatic to the governership FIVE times:
President Bush ... More to come ...
Kerry easily wins. He'll get 51+% of the vote.
The Democrats may have lost West Virginia for several generations .. at least for presidential elections. President Bush wins with 55% of the vote.
In 2000, Bush lost Wisconsin by a very narrow margin: .2%
W = 1,237,279 (47.6%)
Gore = 1,242,987 (47.8%)
This year, Wisconsin has been leaning toward Bush even before John Kerry visited Green Bay and referred to the famous Lambeau Field as Lambert Field.
This was no minor gaffe to Cheeseheads. To them it is sacrilege. How could anyone confuse the storied Lambeau Field with an airport in St. Louis?? I mean this is the FROOOO-ZEN TUUUUUUN-DRA, former home and haunt of the great Vince Lombardi!
The Cheeseheads know a phony when they see one. It will cost Kerry enough votes to put Wisconsin in W's corner.
I can't decide if Kerry is just stupid or if his campaign staff is inept. I lean toward both.
Home of Vice President Cheney. Kerry will be lucky to get 25% of the vote.