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M's 2004 Electoral College Predicition M's 2004 Electoral College Prediction
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2004 Electoral College - Best Case For Kerry

M's 2004 Electoral College Predicition

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This assumes that the Democratic base stays fired up and votes (turnout, turnout, turnout), as well as a less-than-expected crossover in the number of Hispanics and Democrats for Bush.

Florida is close, but this time goes to the Democrats. Kerry wins all 2000 states PLUS Florida and New Hampshire.

Florida goes for Kerry for 2 reasons:

1. The Democrats have a large turnout.

2. The Republicans do not.

Notes

W won Florida and New Hampshire by slim margins in 2000

Florida: W = 2,912,790 (48.85%), Gore = 2,912,253 (48.84%) .01%
New Hampshire: W = 278,559 (48.6%), Gore = 266,848 (46.2%) 2.4%

W lost Iowa, New Mexico, Oregon and Wisconsin by slim margins

Iowa: W = 634,373 (48.3%), Gore = 638,517 (48.6%) .3%
Minnesota: W = 1,109,659 (45.5%), Gore = 1,168,266 (47.9%) 2.4%
New Mexico: W = 286,417 (47.8%), Gore = 286,783 (47.9%) .1%
Oregon: W = 713,577 (46.6%), Gore = 720,342 (47.1%) .5%
Wisconsin: W = 1,237,279 (47.6%) , Gore = 1,242,987 (47.8%) .2%

©2004. Merry Mad Monk