M³'s 2004 Electoral College Prediction
Musings Of A Merry Mad Monk
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2004 Electoral College - Best Case For Bush
This assumes that the Republican base stays fired up and votes (turnout, turnout, turnout), as well as an increase in the number of Hispanics and Democrats for Bush.
W wins all 2000 states PLUS Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington and Wisconsin.
1. W easily wins Iowa, New Mexico and Wisconsin.
2. Minnesota is not as leftist as portrayed by the media. There will be Dems following the lead of the St. Paul mayor. Also, Gov Tim Pawlenty and US Senator Norm Coleman are both solid republicans who are making a positive impact on the attitudes of voters. And we can't leave out our Power Line buddies who are probably having the greatest influence of all.
3. Pennsylvania is a dead heat. Currently Kerry has a slight lead. I believe it is close enough, that ultimately Pennsylvania will vote for W. And we can't forget about the Tom Ridge factor. Tom Ridge is Secretary of Homeland Security. He was a very popular Pennsylvania governor.
4. New Jersey is a bigger stretch than Pennsylvania, but something's happening in "The Garden State" .. polls are showing a tight race.
5. Oregon and Washington are close, but the regular guys outvote the wackies (I'm stretching here).
6. Michigan sees the light. Turnout in suburbs and rural counties is high enough to counter the urban vote.
7. Look Out!! Hawaii was the big sleeper.
W won Florida and New Hampshire by slim margins in 2000
Florida: W = 2,912,790 (48.85%), Gore = 2,912,253 (48.84%) .01%
New Hampshire: W = 278,559 (48.6%), Gore = 266,848 (46.2%) 2.4%
W lost Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon and Wisconsin by slim margins
Iowa: W = 634,373 (48.3%), Gore = 638,517 (48.6%) .3%
Minnesota: W = 1,109,659 (45.5%), Gore = 1,168,266 (47.9%) 2.4%
New Mexico: W = 286,417 (47.8%), Gore = 286,783 (47.9%) .1%
Oregon: W = 713,577 (46.6%), Gore = 720,342 (47.1%) .5%
Wisconsin: W = 1,237,279 (47.6%) , Gore = 1,242,987 (47.8%) .2%
W lost New Jersey big and Michigan,Pennsylvania, and Washington by a much smaller margin
New Jersey: W = 1,284,173 (40.3%), Gore = 1,788,850 (56.1%) 15.8%
Michigan: Bush = 1,953,139 (46.1%), Gore = 2,170,418 (51.3%) 5.2%
Pennsylvania: W = 2,281,127 (46.4%), Gore = 2,485,967 (50.6%) 4.2%
Washington: Bush = 1,108,864 (44.6%), Gore = 1,247,652 (50.2%) 5.6%